Is audio history destined to repeat itself?

[tmazz]

When one looks back at the history of high end audio (or high fidelity as it was called in the 50s) we see that it was originally driven by some visionary pioneering companies like Marantz, Harmon/Kardon and JBL to name a few. While quite successful in the 50s most of these companies sold out to Japanese conglomerates in the late 60s as their founders began to retire. two notable exceptions are Grado and MacIntosh which have seemed to survive on their own (although I am not sure OT the corporate lineage of Mac). This brought us into what I will call the dark ages of audio there freeing companies traded on the reputation and good will of thus audio pioneers to sell cheap mass produced solid state equipment that produced a mere fraction of the sound quality of the early Hoff gear. We began to see a light at the end of the tunnel when a few dedicated audiophiles began to build and market audio gear with the goal of producing the best possible sound for the user rather than the biggest possible profit for the company. They were music lovers first and businessmen second.  These pioneers Bright us innovations and musical performance that we couldn't have even dreamed of in 1970. And most of these companies are still controlled today by their original founders. Mignon, Martin Logan, Whetstone Thiel, Conrad-Johnson, PS Audio, VPI and VTL are still to a large extent still run by the people who built them up with their own sweat equity. But just as we are seeing the graying of the American workforce, we are also seeing the graying of the high-end audio industry. Most of these high end pioneers are rapidly approaching retirement age. Bill Johnson just sold Audio Research Corp. to an Italian conglomerate.This is a scary thing because unlike a passionate founder whose primary goal is to produce a superior product, someone who buys a company is making a cash investment and their primary goal will be to earn a better return on that investment as compared to other things they could have invested in. If making a better product leads to a bigger return then so be it, but the thought priority is profit first quality second.Could this be the beginning of a return to the dark ages?
Jim Thiel's untimely passing reminds us that there are things other than the lure of a Florida retirement community that can take our audio gurus from us. In the case of Thiel we are luck that Kathy Gornick has committed to keep the company going, but heck, she was Jim's original partner 32 years ago, so how long will it be before she is looking to move on with her life? The bottom line is that it is kind of scary to think about what will happen to then industry (and our hobby) when all of these pioneers start to leave the business. One positive note, when Classe' was sold a year or two ago, it was bought up by the B&W group, which while it is a big corporate entity, it also has firm roots in the high end business. So there is hope, but the prospects still make em kind of nervous.

What do you guys think?

[Carlman]

Not sure about the gear industry's direction.. like every other boutique/specialty area, it seems to be taking a hit at the moment.  But long term direction of companies will depend on how they market themselves now... and of course if the products actually perform well.  I think a lot of small companies will just fade away and blame the market.  Others will sell their brand to a bigger company, and some may just get super creative and a little lucky and make a big name for themselves.  It'll be an emotional few years to come.

I will say that I think the hi-fi industry is fueled by good music, and people wanting to hear it better.  There are millions of songs available and seemingly endless avenues to get them right now.  And most of it is stuff I don't want to hear.  I think a lot of people are in the same boat.  The stuff I hear on the FM radio isn't going to drive music or gear sales, except maybe ipods.  There doesn't seem to be a point to today's music.  Unless of course, pitch perfect robots (autotune) really speaks to you.

So, while the hifi gear guys are retiring, so are the good musicians.  So yes, I could see a dark ages coming.. but it's what's needed to get good music later.  I can wait rather than listen to what's coming out lately.  There is no heart, no story, and no message.  What's the point of putting that on a hifi?

-C

[tmazz]

You're right, the current economic situation will only add to the problems I spoke of. But there are a few more things that are adding to the problem. As far as dealers go one of the problems is that a lot of the high roller "pre-amp of the month" type customers have moved on from audio to home theater. Many of the guys who used to show off by having the biggest baddest stereo in the neighborhood are now throwing their spare change into the biggest and baddest flat screen on the market. Audio is not the current "status" technology that it once was (not to mention that many of those guys were Wall Street types that don't have jobs anymore, never mind spare change....) Losing these cash cow customers has been a big blow to many dealers.

Secondly, and maybe more importantly, the American public, and especially the youth, have become increasingly accepting of audio mediocrity. For most kids good sound means buying $20 vs $5 earbuds. The audio industry desperately needs to broaden its base of potential customers. I won't be long before most of us old farts are either too deaf to hear the difference or to old to carry new gear down the stairs to the mancave (if we can even get down the stairs ourselves. If the industry does not cultivate interest in younger people today, they will eventually run out of customers over the long term.

This is not without hope. I don't think it is that kids don't care about quality sound, it is just that very few have ever been exposed to it. My 15 year old has grown up around good sound and enjoys it immensely. He loves to bring friends down to the mancave and blow their mind. Without fail they come up the stairs shaking their heads and talking about how they have never heard anything like that before. Now none of them have the money required to set something like that up (hell, it took me 20 years to do it), but at least if they know it can be done there is a chance they may pursue it as they get older. The golf industry came to this realization a while back. 20 years ago golf was basically an old white guys sport. Realizing that they had just about tapped out the old white guy market the powers that be in golf (the PGA, the USGA, etc.) set out to put into motion a series of programs aimed at making golf more inviting to kids, women and minorities. This of course was helped out a great bit by the appearance on the scene by Tiger  Woods, a young successful minority player (which went along very well until about two weeks ago, so much for the role model....). These programs have been very successful at attracting new demographic groups to the game. The audio industry need to figure out how to accomplish something similar.

While I do agree with you about today's music, I do see a silver ling to that as well. Having two teenage boys and being in voled in Boy Scouts and two youth sports groups, I spent a lot of time interacting with young men.  Over the last few years there has seemed to be an increasing interst among them in old time classic rock. I guess this is in response to the lack of quality new music (I love to overhear comments about finding a great "new" artist named Bob Seeger). My son is even starting to gain an appreciation  for acoustic jazz especially Ben Webster. So the kids are starting to seek out good music. Now if only we can get them to connect the dots between good music and good music with good sound the industry will have a much healthier future.

Tom

[richidoo]

Like any other part of the entertainment industry, the youth control the products we see. Catering to other niches is for the older generation that remembers a time "when things were better than they are now..." and they sell to themselves, a diminishing resource. "How do we attract iPod generation?" You don't! You are too old to channel the revolutionary products they are seeking. You still think vinyl is making a comeback.    They will have their own Bob Dylan, and their own toys.  High end mfgs and press who say "pitypoopoo the iPod is ruining my life" are not getting it. Music connects no matter what fi. When the iPod complainers were 15yo hanging at the beach there was only portable AM radio. It is much better now for music loving juveniles, and if they want lossless they can have it. Oh, and the same gadget will play any movie on demand, satnav, purchase anything on demand without a wallet, video conference, and play pacman - for $400.  Today's 15yo will choose immersive 3D interactive hologram games for their high end entertainment when they are 40yo ready to piss away some cash, but the 15yos then will still be the driving factor in the development of new technology, and they will be having sex with aliens with their simulated imagination generators while they ride the subway. And the podgy old farts like us will be saying they are ruining the art of interactive holographic movies, pitypoopoo!! Mark my words!  

Marantz did his thing, and it was important artistic brushstroke. Now Marantz is just a marketing label for older people who value nostalgia. I don't see any portable Marantz or McIntosh players, or video game consoles.

[Bigfish8]

I know that Rich is correct because it has always been the youth of each generation that has driven the music industry.  Most of you cannot remember the uproar Elvis Presley created with the parents when his popularity hit the roof in the 50's or the mass hysteria created by the arrival of the Beatles in 63.  The old farts in those days did not like the Beatles just as we the old farts of today don't care for Rap or whatever the youth of today enjoy!

Do any of you have any idea what percentage of people that listen to music would fit into the category of audiophiles?  I have no idea but I would bet less than 1%.  In any event the percentage is quite small which means the companies catering to the audiophile is trying to sell to a finky buyer and can expect relatively low sales volume.  This business model just does not fit well into the large corporations. 

Ken

[Bob in St. Louis]

To answer the OP original question;
From my little corner of the world, my prediction is that (popular) music will continue to have sound quality that is crap. However, us audiophiles will continue to be entertained by those musicians who have chosen to create the type of art WE are most fond of in a standard of quality we've accepted. The "Hanna Montana generations" of the world will continue to compress the shit out of their music, but the people we know and enjoy, will continue to produce a quality recording. There will always be another artist in our niche that's new and fresh on the scene to keep us entertained. Sure, we won't be able to peruse the never ending store shelves at Wallyworld for our treasure of the week, but it'll still be available. You'll just be forced to find it via our little comfy corner of the music world. So will audio history repeat itself? No...In order to repeat something you would have had to have ended it. In the case of good, better, best music, it's never ended. All types have always been here for "whoever listens to whatever" to hear. Those that listen to the top 40 on the radio and know the words to all the songs, well, we're on a different level. There is no common ground other than the physical media. That, as has been proven, doesn't mean much.

- Print out an artists list from your music library and take it to a local high school or college and have the students put a check mark by the ones they know.
- Next, print a list of the students libraries.
- Lastly, take those lists to the major recording studios. Who are they going to "feed"?
Not you my friend. Not a chance. We'll always be who we are and they'll always be who they are. We will always be "here" and they will always be "there". Every once in a while there will be a kid that "gets it", but for the most part we're on a different plain.

  Rich, that's one of the most accurate and honest posts I've seen all year.
Well said. VERY well said. I agree 100%. My son (much to my surprise) made a phone call from his handheld PSP the other day.  You could have knocked me over with a feather. I had no idea that was possible. I was the kid who programmed my parents VCR 'cause they didn't have the "smarts". Now I feel like a dumbshit.

I like the sex with aliens thing. Most intriguing. Is there a list I could get on? Maybe a line ticket for the main list? Some alien "strange" sounds interesting.

Bob

[tmazz]

......the companies catering to the audiophile is trying to sell to a finky buyer and can expect relatively low sales volume.  This business model just does not fit well into the large corporations. 

I agree totally and that was where my original post was going (although the original thoughts were related to hardware, not music, but as often happens this thread made a sharp turn and took on a life of its own )
My original thought was that high end equipment manufacturing is basically a cottage industry driven by a group of people who started their companies with a passionate vision and and decisions in those companies were driven first by the vision and second by the financials. As those pioneers retire and pass on  these companies I fear the new owners will reverse that and base decisions mostly on the financials, which I am afraid will not work out too well for us as high end consumers.My comment about repeating history was looking at what happened to audio product quality when the pioneers of the 50s sold out to large corporations and wondering if we were going to see that happen again.

Tom

[richidoo]

It could be that new blood will take over the companies and lead them into greater innovation than ever. As long as there is a hunger for music, people will think up interesting ways to consume it with great enjoyment.   If the corporate culture allows talent and passion to rise to the top, anything can happen. Usually as a company grows it becomes more risk averse, which is opposite the way it should be, but the visionary founder usually tolerates more risk in order to follow his passion.

[tmazz]

Rich, I certainly hope your optimistic view turns out to be right. I guess my many years of working in a Fortune 25 company and constantly fighting with the bean counters has made me more apt to look at things from the dark side of the force.

[Bigfish8]

Rich, I certainly hope your optimistic view turns out to be right. I guess my many years of working in a Fortune 25 company and constantly fighting with the bean counters has made me more apt to look at things from the dark side of the force.

Tom:

Possibly, the future of those craving very high performance audio products will lie with the ability of gifted modders.  I offer some recently developed products as examples:  The Squeezebox, The Transporter and the most recent Oppo BluRay Player.  These are products developed and marketed by large corporations for the masses.  Some audiophiles have judged their quality to be darn good but after modders have worked their magic the performance of these products reach new levels. 

I think your original post is valid in that this business is changing and it is hard to predict where things or going in the future.  It is a safe bet that some of the population will want their music quality to be deemed superior to that provided by the products sold to the masses.  I suspect their will be people like our local Dr. Sol to fill this niche.  At the very least I hope so!

Ken

[richidoo]

The bean counters are the forcefield to repel all risk. They have a function, to preserve what it already gained. They obstruct the gaining of new ground in large amounts. Winning is irrelevant. Only the CEO can overrule them, but if he's dead literally or figuratively then it's a no go. Corporate boards control him and the destiny of the company. Usually looking for 10% growth, not 200% which is what the  start up needs to survive so he shoots for the stars and creates a new industry.

Ken, Slim Devices was a very small company with a big idea and lots of talent and productivity. Their idea evolved over 10 years tro the point it was valuable to a big company. Now you will see new colors of the same idea for years to come, but no new concepts.

Sol is actually of the mind that young people will enjoy listening to music on quality equipment, and price is the only barrier. He designs products that sound very good but cost much less than current products with same features. But the efficiency of a small company is needed to make it float.

[rollo]

  Interesting thoughts men. Yes 2% of it all is high end. I believe the industry will continue. With the computer being used as the front end its only the beginning. Digital is getting better and better. The USB interface is not the cats meow so far. There is room for improvement which I look forward to. Ice amps are another example of advancement. Maybe not there 100% yet but they are getting better as the cottage industry gets involved. Then there are guys like Nightshade Audio. always thinking out of the box.
   Lets think about this a minute. Really what new circuit designs for amps has really changed ?  Until tripath, ice, digital nothing really innovative or new. Just rehashing the same circuits with better parts. I see a bright future for us. look Cd took a while to get right. give em a chance.


charles

[bmr3hc]

I for one am cautiously optimistic. The one thing that is always certain in business is change. Some change not good, and some very much so. Companies like Audio Research, Conrad Johnson and a few others got started because the stats quo was mediocre and that was not good enough for people who have a passion and need to enjoy music. They have done well as they have stayed true to their core beliefs that its all about the music, and there are lots of people where music is a passion and a need. " A luxury once enjoyed becomes a need." Most companies that are driven by short term profit objectives, will not be around for the long haul. Companies that are strictly profit driven with no focus on quality and what the customer demands will not last as well. I think we all want the high quality companies to make a profit and stay in business. But over priced gear is not sustainable either. There is always going to be a niche market for good high quality gear that music lovers will search out. They have a had a taste of the good stuff and there is now no going back to average mediocre stuff. Companies like Ayre is one of those companies I feel understand that niche market of audiophiles/ music lovers that is poised to continue that great tradition of getting music done right for those of us who want it good because we got it bad. I recall some time back that many thought LP's were dead. Still around and will likely stay around regardless of the latest fad.

Henry

[tmazz]

  ... look Cd took a while to get right. .....

CD got it right ???            

Your LP-12 must be writing you out of the will as we speak.   

[JLM]

We all are greying (or have died).  Things, ways, and people come and go.  History always cycles, those who don't learn from it are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

The internet facilitated cottage industry (and as rightly mentioned above involving modding) is probably the key to audio's future.  Traditional bricks and mortar retailing already is the exception to the rule, save the really old school farts.

Financially times are tougher.  Since the 70's the gap between haves and have nots has been growing.  

Back in the 50's, 60's, and 70's geeks had few avenues, now audio competes (rather poorly) with computers, video games, and HT.

And except for fine folks like Tmazz, the positive male role model is a dying breed (and has largely been put down for decades as the irresponsible, violent, absent to family part of society that overall we are).  So why should they be interested in what we're interested in?

The age group with the most disposable funds is 10 - 30.  Therein lies the answer as to what drives much of our culture.  The old adage, "follow the money to find the answers to life's mysteries," certainly applies here.

What scares us about MP3 is that is relatively close to audiophile quality for so little money (and we resist admitting it).  The Wadia cradle is one pathway for migration, but way too expensive and inconvenient when you add amp/speaker/room.  Those little clip-on amps (NuForce, Decware) with better earbuds/headphones might be the more viable approach.